Tokyo Kisen raises earnings outlook amid shifts in tanker traffic
Japanese marine services company Tokyo Kisen has revised its earnings forecasts upward for the financial year ending March 2027, as alternative crude oil shipments support tugboat operations despite disruptions to tanker traffic linked to tensions in the Middle East.
The company now expects consolidated revenue of JPY 13.08 billion, compared with its previous forecast of JPY 12.54 billion. Its projected ordinary result has moved from a loss of JPY 155 million to a profit of JPY 40 million, while expected net profit attributable to shareholders has increased from JPY 37 million to JPY 114 million.
However, Tokyo Kisen continues to anticipate an annual operating loss, although the forecast has improved from JPY 413 million to JPY 273 million. The revised outlook reflects the competing effects of changes in vessel traffic, alternative crude oil supply routes and higher operating costs.
Middle East disruptions reshape tanker arrivals
Tokyo Kisen said the number of vessels carrying hazardous cargo entering the ports served by its tugboat operations had declined substantially, broadly in line with its earlier expectations, as a result of developments in the Middle East.
Nevertheless, alternative demand associated with the transportation of crude oil from Japanese domestic reserves, alongside tanker arrivals carrying crude from the United States and other regions, has helped offset part of the reduction in activity.
These developments have contributed to a stronger-than-expected first-half performance. For the six months ended September 2026, the company revised its revenue estimate upward to JPY 6.62 billion from JPY 6.30 billion.
Its projected first-half operating result improved from a loss of JPY 314 million to a profit of JPY 38 million, while ordinary profit is now expected to reach JPY 295 million, compared with a previously anticipated loss of JPY 175 million.
Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecast at JPY 311 million, reversing an earlier projection of an JPY 11 million loss. The improvement in ordinary profit also reflects dividend income and earnings from equity-method investments.
Fuel costs remain a challenge
Despite the improved outlook, Tokyo Kisen warned that uncertainty surrounding the Middle East could continue to disrupt maritime logistics during the remainder of the financial year.
The company noted that the decline in vessel movements associated with regional tensions has so far remained within its expectations. However, it cautioned that the reduction could become more pronounced as alternative crude oil transportation demand subsides.
Higher fuel prices represent another significant operating challenge. Tokyo Kisen expects fuel expenses across its consolidated group to increase by approximately JPY 400 million, or around 30%, compared with the previous financial year.
The projected increase in fuel costs is one reason the company continues to forecast an operating loss despite the upward revision to revenue and ordinary profit expectations.
For the financial year ending March 2027, Tokyo Kisen now anticipates revenue broadly in line with the previous year, while ordinary profit is expected to remain considerably below the JPY 347 million reported for the year ended March 2026.
The revised forecasts highlight how changes in crude oil sourcing and tanker movements can affect demand for supporting maritime services. While alternative oil shipments have provided some relief for Tokyo Kisen’s tugboat operations, continued uncertainty over vessel traffic and fuel prices remains a constraint on the company’s expected profitability.
