Diesel costs renew pressure on European road transport
European road transport operators are facing renewed pressure from diesel costs, with prices edging higher again after a brief decline earlier in October, according to an IRU market update published on 16 October.
The organisation’s weighted average diesel price across the European Union reached €2.17 per litre on 15 October, approximately 33% above its level on 27 February. The average had peaked at €2.27 on 27 September before falling to €2.15 on 7 October, partly following national tax cuts and support measures.
Prices continued to vary considerably between countries. IRU recorded diesel at €2.56 per litre in Denmark and €2.53 in the Netherlands, compared with €1.81 in Poland, €1.83 in Croatia and €1.87 in Spain. The organisation noted that government interventions contributed to the lower prices in the latter three markets.
Supply disruption keeps markets under pressure
The International Energy Agency’s October Oil Market Report shows that the recovery in crude supplies has not been matched by an equivalent rebound in refined fuels. Middle Eastern refined-product shipments remained below half their pre-conflict levels in September.
Global diesel exports were approximately 700,000 barrels per day lower than a year earlier. Increased shipments from other suppliers only partly compensated for reduced exports from Russia and the Middle East.
The IEA said prolonged disruption had forced inventories to decline ahead of autumn refinery maintenance and winter demand. It also warned that rising tanker costs could push delivered diesel prices higher in Europe, Africa and Latin America during the coming weeks.
Recovery depends on refining and exports
IRU additionally identified low Rhine water levels as a constraint on inland fuel distribution, particularly towards southern Germany and Switzerland. Its assessment distinguishes between measures that ease operators’ immediate costs and developments that increase physical fuel availability.
The IEA expects refinery throughput to recover towards year-end, but forecasts that rebuilding depleted inventories will take longer. Although its projections indicate a gasoil and diesel surplus in early 2027, that would initially restore normal seasonal stock movements rather than eliminate the accumulated deficit.
A more substantial recovery remains dependent on improved Middle Eastern product supplies, with inventory replenishment beyond seasonal changes considered unlikely before the second half of 2027.
